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7 September 2023,09:15
Weekly Outlook
7 September 2023, 09:15
The market had anticipated a June reading of 9.610 million, but the actual figure fell slightly short of expectations, registering at 9.582 million. Given the current tight labour market conditions, this reading is seen as remaining relatively stable. It could potentially serve as a basis for the Fed to maintain its elevated interest rates for an extended period.
In line with market expectations, the July reading held steady at 0.3%, mirroring the previous month’s figure.The nation’s inflation is maintaining a balanced state. However, the European Central Bank is still looking for signs that the basic inflation is starting to change significantly.
A robust GDP reading of 2.4% in the second quarter indicates the effectiveness of the economic plan. This healthy figure raises hopes that the country might steer clear of the projected “mild” recession.
The recent updates regarding China’s economy and its upcoming directions have garnered significant attention from investors. The latest PMI showed a gradual improvement, moving from 49.2 to 49.3. Certain businesses have commented on the intricate and challenging nature of the current conditions, which makes it difficult for the situation to be positive.
The latest US Core PCE Price Index fell from 0.3% to 0.2%. Inflation is coming down slowly, causing less trouble for job markets than what economists predicted. This probably means that policymakers won’t need to raise interest rates in the upcoming September meeting.
In July, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) reached 187,000, which was lower than the market’s 200,000 expectation. Yet, this outcome might be connected to the consistently low initial jobless claims. Lately, it’s been difficult to accurately assess the strength of the US economy, resulting in unexpected outcomes. Economists are finding it challenging to predict the current state of affairs.
The jobless rate went down from 3.6% to 3.5% in July, showing that the overall job market was still strong. Markets view the reading as a positive sign of improvement, however currently the country’s economy is still facing numerous challenges, especially in response to a series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve aimed at reducing inflation.
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