Aussie Holds Firm Ahead of RBA Decision, Supported by Strong Jobs Data and China Stimulus Hopes

Fundamental Analysis

The Australian dollar remained resilient against its G7 peers in recent sessions, underpinned by robust domestic economic data. A stronger-than-expected employment report — featuring upbeat employment change figures and a lower-than-anticipated unemployment rate — bolstered investor confidence, reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may adopt a more hawkish tone.

Markets are currently pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut at today’s RBA meeting. However, any deviation from this expectation, particularly a surprise hold or hawkish policy language, could trigger a sharp appreciation in the Aussie.

In addition, sentiment around the Australian dollar has been buoyed by policy developments in China. As a key proxy for Chinese economic momentum, the AUD stands to benefit from the People’s Bank of China’s recent decision to lower borrowing costs — a move seen as part of broader efforts to stimulate growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD

AUDUSD, H4

The AUD/USD pair is consolidating within an asymmetric triangle pattern, having traded sideways between the 0.6500 and 0.6365 levels over the past two weeks. A decisive break above the triangle’s upper boundary would signal a potential bullish breakout, suggesting further upside for the pair.

Momentum indicators paint a cautiously optimistic picture. While the MACD remains near the zero line — reflecting a neutral tone — the RSI has been climbing steadily, pointing to growing bullish momentum. Should this trend persist, the Aussie may gain further ground against the greenback in the near term.

Resistance levels: 0.6505, 0.6575

Support levels: 0.6420, 0.6360

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Aussie Holds Firm Ahead of RBA Decision, Supported by Strong Jobs Data and China Stimulus Hopes

Fundamental Analysis

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD

AUDUSD, H4

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