Will NFP Stir the Pot Next Week?

Monday, 3 March 2025, 17:00 – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

The latest US ISM Manufacturing PMI, released in February 2025, rose to 50.9 for January, marking the first expansion in 26 months. The expansion was driven by a surge in new orders, increased production and employment stabilization, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management. For the upcoming release covering February, a potential slight increase to 51.2 is expected, fueled by sustained demand and production momentum, aligning with S&P Global’s PMI at 51.6, though risks like tariff disruptions or softening economic signals could temper growth.

Wednesday, 5 March 2025, 15:15 – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb)

In February, the latest ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report, revealed the U.S. private sector gained 183,000 jobs in January 2025, up from a revised 176,000 in December 2024, beating market forecasts of around 150,000. The ADP Research Institute highlighted strong hiring in consumer-facing sectors like education/health services and leisure/hospitality, though manufacturing weakened, signaling a patchy labor market. Analysts attribute this resilience to a solid consumer base, possibly aided by the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut to 4.25%-4.50%, despite looming tariff threats, such as 25% on Mexico and Canada, per economic commentary. For the upcoming release, market expecting a possibly slight uptick in jobs, driven by sustained service-sector strength. However, intensifying tariff concerns could drag the figure lower.

Thursday, 6 March 2025, 15:15 – ECB Interest Rate Decision

The European Central Bank (ECB) adjusted its key interest rates on January meeting, cutting the main refinancing rate to 2.90%, the deposit facility rate to 2.75%, and the marginal lending rate to 3.15%, each by 25 basis points. This fifth consecutive cut since June 2024, as reported by the ECB, reflects a response to a stagnating eurozone economy—GDP growth flatlined in Q4 2024—despite inflation rising to 2.4% in December, above the ECB’s 2% target. The ECB attributed the decision to a “well on track” disinflation process and weakening growth, with policymakers signaling further easing as policy remains “restrictive,” per ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks. For the upcoming meeting and decision, the central bank is expected to deliver another 25-basis-point cut, driven by persistent economic sluggishness and confidence that inflation will settle near 2% by mid-2025, supported by Reuters’ economist consensus and softening wage growth. However, risks of stalled cuts could emerge if inflation accelerates unexpectedly or U.S. tariff policies disrupt trade, potentially pushing the ECB to pause at 2.90%.

Friday, 7 March 2025, 15:30 – US Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a job increase of 143,000 in January 2025, down from a revised 307,000 in December 2024 and falling short of market expectations of around 160,000. The slowdown was linked to weaker hiring in manufacturing and retail, though service sectors like healthcare and hospitality held firmly, reflecting a cooling yet resilient labor market. Economists point to the Federal Reserve’s steady 4.25%-4.50% rate policy and tariff speculation—such as Trump’s proposed 25% on Canada and Mexico—as potential drags, with Reuters noting upward revisions of 100,000 jobs for November and December combined boosting confidence. For the upcoming release which covering February numbers, the numbers is expected to see a slight uptick, potentially supported by stable consumer spending.